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Kliimasoojenemise poliitilistest ja kaubanduslikest tagajärgedest Arktikas

Hiljuti kirjutas Tyler Cowen ühe Foreign Affairs artikli kohta:

Here is the full article, which is interesting throughout; if you read only five magazine-like articles this year, this should be one of them.

I might add that, historically, struggles over new territory tend to bring conflict.  The creation of new Arctic “territory” is one of the most important issues in the world right now.

Jutt käib viimases Foreign Affairs’is ilmunud artiklist Arctic Meltdown, mis arutleb Arktika sulamise ja selle võimalike poliitiliste ning kaubanduslike tagajärgede üle. Artikkel on pikema poolne, kuid väärib lugemist kasvõi  võimalike mõjude tõttu maailma geopoliitikale:

The shipping shortcuts of the Northern Sea Route (over Eurasia) and the Northwest Passage (over North America) would cut existing oceanic transit times by days, saving shipping companies — not to mention navies and smugglers — thousands of miles in travel. The Northern Sea Route would reduce the sailing distance between Rotterdam and Yokohama from 11,200 nautical miles — via the current route, through the Suez Canal — to only 6,500 nautical miles, a savings of more than 40 percent. Likewise, the Northwest Passage would trim a voyage from Seattle to Rotterdam by 2,000 nautical miles, making it nearly 25 percent shorter than the current route, via the Panama Canal. Taking into account canal fees, fuel costs, and other variables that determine freight rates, these shortcuts could cut the cost of a single voyage by a large container ship by as much as 20 percent — from approximately $17.5 million to $14 million — saving the shipping industry billions of dollars a year. The savings would be even greater for the megaships that are unable to fit through the Panama and Suez Canals and so currently sail around the Cape of Good Hope and Cape Horn. Moreover, these Arctic routes would also allow commercial and military vessels to avoid sailing through politically unstable Middle Eastern waters and the pirate-infested South China Sea. An Iranian provocation in the Strait of Hormuz, such as the one that occurred in January, would be considered far less of a threat in an age of trans-Arctic shipping.

Igal juhul igav ei tohiks sellel planeedil järgmise paarikümne aasta jooksu küll olla.

Tagged with: arktika, Cowen, Foreign Affairs, geopoliitika, kaubandus

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