Nobeli memoriaalpreemia võitnud makroökonoomikud “stimuleerimisest”
Will Wilkinson avaldas hiljuti artikli, kus viimaste aastate jooksul Nobeli memoriaalpreemia majandusteaduses võitnud makroökonoomikutel avanes hea võimalus välja öelda, mida nad majanduse stimuleerimisest arvasid:
The most recent Nobel Prize awarded for work specifically in macroeconomics–the branch of economics that studies aggregate economic phenomena, the causes of recessions, and the effectiveness of government attempts to stimulate economic performance–went to Columbia University’s Edmund Phelps in 2006. When I spoke to Phelps on Tuesday, he was rather less emphatically decisive than was Prescott about the dire prospects of the stimulus. But neither was he optimistic. “We’re completely flying blind,” Phelps said, suggesting that even the best of the best in macroeconomics don’t know enough to predict with confidence how the stimulus will pan out. “There’s a chance that some of the infrastructure spending will do the job of creating more work for earth-moving equipment and construction workers, Phelps noted. “I said, ‘a chance’,” he continued. “Now, there’s also a chance that the perceived increase in the role of government of this sort will have some unanticipated effects on the animal spirits of entrepreneurs. These projects may stand as a sort of symbol of the weakening of the private sector.”
Phelps ei häbene ka välja öelda, mida ta avaliku sektori poolsest “innovatsiooni stimuleerimisest” arvab:
Phelps says he “just doesn’t understand” the argument that government can spur innovation through top-down subsidies for selected new technologies. Citing his Columbia colleague Amar Bhide, Phelps suspects that “a lot of money will be made by being in the right place at the right time and knowing the right people. Especially knowing the right people.” Phelps is disturbed by the thought that we may be shifting from an entrepreneurial economy toward a lobbying economy. “A lot of potential entrepreneurs, who were contemplating making an innovation and launching it in the marketplace, will now think, ‘Well maybe the safer thing to do is to try to get that government contract.’ … And nobody does the innovation. They’re all too busy trying to get the government contract.”
Minu tagasihoidlik küsimus siia juurde oleks, et kas me tahame Eestis ettevõtteid, mis panustavad eelkõige riigitellimustele ja -lepingutele koos kaasneva majandustegevuse politiseerumisega või hoopis ettevõtteid, mille edu ei sõltu poliitilisest soosingust või suutlikkusest paberimajanduses orienteeruda?
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