VABALOG

Rahaliidu tulevik teelehtedelt…

Kreeka järgmiste maksete tähtajad lähenevad (16 miljardit eurot aprillis ja mais) ning osad on leidnud, et oluliste otsuste aeg ei ole enam kaugel. Kaalul on rahaliidu tulevik ja tegelikult terve regiooni (kui mitte maailma) majanduskasvu väljavaated:

In fact, the massive exposure of German and French banks to Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain offers part of the explanation as to why Europe’s biggest economies have been steadily moving to rescue their southern neighbors in recent days, according to a recent report from Societe General entitled “Shotgun Greek Wedding.” According to the report banks in Germany and France alone have a combined exposure of $119 billion to Greece and $909 billion to the four countries, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements. Overall, European banks have $253 billion in Greece and $2.1 trillion in the four countries collectively referred to as the “PIGS”.

Alati informatiivselt Edward Hugh’lt, kes viitas muuhulgas Wolfgang Münchau artiklile Financial Times’is, kust jäi silma üks viimaseid lõike:

The second conclusion is that a rules-based monetary union is still possible, but only among a group of similar countries – in terms of their economic development, and their fundamental political attitudes towards economic policy. Only a relatively small number of countries are capable of sustaining a monetary union with Germany politically and economically.

Kas Eesti võiks kuuluda taolisesse gruppi? Ma kaldun pigem “jah” ütlema, kuid selle eelduseks on majanduskasvu taastumine ja jätkumine. Lihtsamini öeldud, kui tehtud!

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