Iirimaa karastavad väljavaated

Morgan Kelly kirjutab Irish Times’i veergudel (hulgaliselt viitamist leidnud artiklis) Iirimaa hädistetst väljavaadetest:

As ordinary people start to realise that this thing is not only happening, it is happening to them, we can see anxiety giving way to the first upwellings of an inchoate rage and despair that will transform Irish politics along the lines of the Tea Party in America. Within five years, both Civil War parties are likely to have been brushed aside by a hard right, anti-Europe, anti-Traveller party that, inconceivable as it now seems, will leave us nostalgic for the, usually, harmless buffoonery of Biffo, Inda, and their chums.

You have read enough articles by economists by now to know that it is customary at this stage for me to propose, in 30 words or fewer, a simple policy that will solve all our problems. Unfortunately, this is where I have to hold up my hands and confess that I have no solutions, simple or otherwise.

Sünge stsenaarium, millest saab järgmine vaatus Euroopa institutsionaalse hõõrdumise vaatemängus. Võib juhtuda, et iirlased on esimesed, kes saavad massiliselt aru kui palju enda iseseisvusest on nad Euroopa Liidu institutsioonidele loovutanud. Veel kentsakam, kui nad seda valimistel väljendavad ning sõjakas uus valitsus võtab Euroopa Liidu suhtes tõrjuva hoiaku.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard kurdab aga Telegraph’is, kui passiivselt on suhtutud vastutustundetusse laenamisse ja kuidas see rahaliidu liikmete valikuid nüüd piirama hakkab:

An ominous pattern has emerged across much of the eurozone periphery: tax revenue keeps falling short of what was hoped. Austerity measures are eating deeper into the economy than expected, forcing further fiscal cuts. It goes too far to call this a self-feeding spiral, but such policies test political patience to snapping point.

There is little that these nations can do in the short-run as EMU members. They cannot offset fiscal tightening with full monetary stimulus or a weaker exchange rate – as Britain can. All they can do is soldier on, sell family silver to the Chinese and Gulf Arabs, beg the ECB to join the currency war to bring down the euro, and pray that the fragile global recovery does not sputter out.

Chancellor Merkel is ultimately correct. A mechanism for sovereign defaults is entirely healthy. Had it been in place long ago, EMU would have been stronger. The proper timing for this was at the Maastricht Treaty, or Amsterdam, or at the latest Nice, but in those days the EU elites were still arrogantly dismissive about the implications of a currency union. To wait until now borders on careless.

Mulle tundus ka see lõik oluline:

These were the terms imposed by Germany at Friday’s EU summit as the Quid Pro Quo for the creation of a permanent rescue fund in 2013. A treaty change will be rammed through under Article 48 of the Lisbon Treaty, a trick that circumvents the need for full ratification. Eurosceptics can feel vindicated in warning that this “escalator” clause would soon be exploited for unchecked treaty-creep.

Mrs Merkel needs a treaty change to prevent the German constitutional court from blocking the bail-out fund as a breach of EU law, and a treaty change is what she will get. “This will strengthen my position with the Karlsruhe court,” she admitted openly.

Kui muidu ei saa, siis kuidagi ikka saab.

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