Euroopa Komisjon soovib suruda eurotsooni liikmesriike senisest enam eurokriteeriumide piiridesse ja on tulnud välja mitmete arvamustega, kuidas sekkuda riikide eelarveplaneerimisse või karistada neid struktuurifondide raha külmutamisega.
Eelmisel nädalal kerkis varasemast teravamalt esile küsimus eelarvedistsipliinist rahaliidu liikmesriikides, mis ajendas Komisjoni välja tulema ettepanekuga hakata kõigi Euroopa Liidu liikmesriikide eelarveid enne vastu võtmist inspekteerima ja heaks kiitma sealhulgas ka nende riikide eelarveid, mis rahaliitu ei kuulu ja on siiani eeskujulikult hakkama saanud. Mõistagi ei istu taolised mõtted kõigiga. Rootslased on enda vastuseisu Komisjoni poolsele kontrollimisele ja võimuhaaramisele juba teatavaks teinud:
The proposals, put forward on Tuesday by economic and monetary affairs commissioner Olli Rehn, would apply to all EU countries, including those like Sweden that have not adopted the euro.
“We think it’s odd that it would apply to all countries. The presumption should be that those countries whose budgets break the stability and growth pact – you could possibly have a discussion on that point,” Reinfeldt said.
“I will object to this way of looking at things,” he added.
Möödunud aastal raius Saksamaa oma põhiseadusse pügala, mis keelab föderaalvalitsusel alates 2016. aastast riigieelarvega enam kui 0,35 protsendi võrra SKTst miinusesse minna. Liidumaadele ei ole alates aastast 2020 üldse mingisugust puudujääki lubatud.
Kui sellised seadusi rakendada kogu eurotsoonis, tagaks see palju karmima eelarvedistsipliini kui praegune reegel hoida defitsiit 3 protsendi piires SKTst.
Kui Eesti iseseisvus on olnud võimalik eelkõige tänu suuremate riikide toetusele, siis Suurbritannia saaks hakkama märksa iseseisvamalt, mis tähendab korraliku kandepinda ka euroskeptikutele, kellest Lord Tebbin on üks häälekamaid:
Our Masters have been simply waiting for this crisis, which I had guessed would come not less than ten, and not more than twenty years into the life of the Euro. We all know that the Greek crisis will not be the last of its kind. Either the Eurozone states must move to full economic union, that is a single economic policy, including both taxation and public expenditure, or the Euro will, sooner or later, suffer a fatal financial crisis.
Mulle tundub, et praegu oleks õige aeg hakata kohalikel poliitikutel tõsisemalt mõtlema sellele, millest ollakse eurotsooni kuuludes valmis loobuma. Kui suuremad liikmesriigid saavad reegleid ja ettekirjutusi mätsida ning vassida, siis väiksematel ja vaesematel riikidel sarnased võimalused puuduvad.
Mulle tundub, et meie maksusüsteem on piisavalt omanäoline, et soovitada meile “euroopalikumat maksusüsteemi” ja eelarvele heakskiidu saamine Brüsselist tähendab tõenäoliselt ka poliitiliste valikute järjest ulatuslikumat taandamist eurokraatide eelistustele, mis ei pruugi aga sugugi ühtida eestlaste eelistustega.
Mind isiklikult häirib, et meil on tegelikult olemas valikud ja alternatiivid, kuid meile kiputakse tagantjärgi kõike serveerima kui fait accompli’t, mis tuleb lihtsalt alla neelata, sest midagi teha on hilja.
Järgmine vaatus institutsionaalse hõõrdumise saagas kommenteerimine on välja lülitatud
Euro ja suuremate võlglaste käekäik on jätkuvalt huvitav, kuid mul pole eriti millelegi paremale viidata kui Tyler Cowen’i postitusele, mis sisaldab asjalike mõtteid ja viiteid olulisemale. Lõpus toodud Yglesias’e postituse võib rahulikult vahele jätta.
Dark Flow is a name given to a net motion of galaxy clusters with respect to the cosmic microwave background radiation which was found in a 2008 study. According to standard cosmological models, the motion of galaxy clusters with respect to the cosmic microwave background should be randomly distributed in all directions. However, analyzing the three-year WMAP data using the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect, the authors of the study found evidence of a common motion of at least 600 km/s toward a 20-degree patch of sky between the constellations of Centaurus and Vela. The authors suggest that the motion may be a remnant of the influence of no-longer-visible regions of the universe prior to inflation.
Vigorish, or simply the vig, also known as juice or the take, is the amount charged by a bookmaker, or bookie, for his services. In the United States it also means the interest on a shark’s loan. The term is Yiddish slang originating from the Russian word for winnings, vyigrysh. Bookmakers use this concept to make money on their wagers regardless of the outcome. Because of the vigorish concept, bookmakers should not have an interest in either side winning in a given sporting event. They are interested, instead, in getting equal action on each side of the event.
Enceladus is the sixth-largest moon of Saturn. In 2005, the Cassini spacecraft performed several close flybys of Enceladus, revealing the moon’s surface and environment in greater detail. In particular, the probe discovered a water-rich plume venting from the moon’s south polar region. This discovery, along with the presence of escaping internal heat and very few (if any) impact craters in the south polar region, shows that Enceladus is geologically active today. Analysis of the outgassing suggests that it originates from a body of sub-surface liquid water, which along with the unique chemistry found in the plume, has fueled speculations that Enceladus may be important in the study of astrobiology. The discovery of the plume has added further weight to the argument that material released from Enceladus is the source of the E ring.
Santa Muerte is a deity venerated in Mexico, probably a syncretism between Mesoamerican and Catholic beliefs. The name literally translates to “Saint Death” or “Holy Death”. As the worship of this deity was clandestine until recently, most prayers and other rites are done privately in the home. However, for the past ten years or so, worship has become more public, especially in Mexico City. The cult is condemned by the Catholic Church in Mexico, but it is firmly entrenched among Mexico’s lower classes and criminal worlds. The number of believers in the deity has grown over the past ten to twenty years, to approximately two million followers and has crossed the border into Mexican American communities in the United States.
Scrip is any substitute for currency which is not legal tender and is often a form of credit. Scrips were created as company payment of employees and also as a means of payment in times where regular money is unavailable, such as remote coal towns or occupied countries in war time. Other forms of scrip include subway tokens, arcade tokens and tickets, and “points” on some websites. Scrip survives in modern times in various forms including as gift certificates and currency in online games.
The Observable Universe consists of the galaxies and other matter that we can in principle observe from Earth in the present day, because light (or other signals) from those objects has had time to reach us since the beginning of the cosmological expansion. The actual shape of the Universe may or may not be spherical. Every location in the Universe has its own observable universe which may or may not overlap with the one centered around the Earth. The edge of the observable universe is now located about 46.5 billion light-years away.
Claus Vistesen, kes viitab ka enda värskele artiklile, ei näe valgust tunneli lõpus:
Well, to me Greece is doomed and while this may sound excessively alarmist I see no way out for this economy. The real nutbreaker will be whether Portugal and Spain are the next one to follow. One default and you blame the defaultee, three and you blame the system and it is exactly the imminent risk of the second (almost unthinkable) scenario that I recently dealt with in a more lenghty format.
Edward Hugh, kes kahtleb hispaanlaste töötute protsendis ja otsib vastust lisaks migratsioonile ka andmete kajastamisest:
Basically since last September, when you could say that the funny things happening with Spain’s unemployment data got even funnier, a seasonally adjusted 189,000 people have stopped contributing to the social security system (by March, see above chart). This represents something like 1.06% of total employment, so how the hell, we might like to ask ourselves, can estimated unemployment have only risen by 0.1%? Especially when, and according to the Labour Ministry’s own data, the economically active population has risen by a seasonally adjusted 35,000 over the last six months. Something, somewhere just doesn’t fit here.
Charles Wyplosz, kes on ka Eestis laialt levinud makroökonoomika õpiku autor, ei näe väljapääsu:
The plan will not work. Greece is supposed to reduce its deficit by 11% of GDP in three years. This would have been a tall order of requirement if the recovery was going to be strong. The drop in public spending, along with the psychological impact of the crisis, will provoke a profound recession that will deepen the deficit. This, along with the social and political impact of the crisis, will undoubtedly prevent the Greek government from delivering on its commitments. What will be done then? The IMF has the option of suspending its disbursements and forcing a default, as it did with Argentina. The EU governments, facing another loss of face (after letting the IMF into the den), may be tempted by forbearance. If they do, they will eventually to put in more money. If they don’t, the Greek government will default, precisely what the whole plan aims at avoiding.
Walter Russel Mead, kes pakub kiire ülevaate Kreeka valitsejatest viimase 200 aasta jooksul ja proovib mõista Kreekat laiemas kontekstis:
Whatever happens in Greece, we need to remember that its problems are not unique, and the clash between those who like the world that capitalism has made and those who hate it is not going away. The global capitalist revolution offers the best and indeed the only hope that I see for the relief of poverty, the advance of human rights and the protection of the environment worldwide. Like all great revolutionary movements, however, it creates divisions, inequalities and resistance. Revolts against the liberal capitalist world system — fascism and communism above all — shaped the history of the twentieth century and inflicted unprecedented misery and harm until they were defeated. The radical terrorist movement led by Islamic renegades has more recently inflicted grave harm in many places and its violent course has not yet come to an end; we are likely to see more crises and conflict in the twenty first century as the anti-capitalist counter-revolution finds new forms and new allies.
Lihtsalt natuke mõtteainet hiljutise Kreeka abipaketi eufooria kõrvale.
Teised tragöödiast nimega Kreeka kommenteerimine on välja lülitatud
Mõnedest blogidest, mida regulaarsemalt jälgin, hakkas silma üks meem, mis tundus piisavalt intrigeeriv, et sellel üks postitus pühendada. Tundub, et meem jõudis blogosfääri läbi Megan McArdle’i:
A friend suggested this exercise: go to your Amazon orders page, and see what the very first thing you ordered from Amazon was.
Memoirs of the turn of the previous century are filled with the family’s first automobile, its first water closet and electric lights. But I have no memory of my first interaction with an invention that is still reshaping how I live.
Megan’i tegi enda esimese tellimuse 1998. aasta mais ja Will Wilkinson 1999. aasta märtsis, mis ärgitas mind enda kirevale Amazoni ajaloole pilku heitma ja enda esimest tellimust meelde tuletama, mis sai tehtud 3. juulil 1998. aastal ja koosnes järgmistest raamatutest:
The Demolished Man by Alfred Bester
Sandman : Preludes and Nocturnes by Neil Gaiman
Virtual Unrealities : The Short Fiction of Alfred Bester by Alfred Bester
At the Mountains of Madness and Other Tales by H. P. Lovecraft
The Stars My Destination by Alfred Bester
J.R.R. Tolkien : The Hobbit and the Complete Lord of the Rings, the Fellowship of the Ring, the Two Towers, the Return of the King/Boxed Set
Ma olin lõpetanud 11. klassi ning suvi vajas sisustamist millegi enam kui lihtsalt logelemisega. Esimese tellimuse valikud tulenesid aga eelkõige ühest inimesest, kes enda tegevuse tagamaid ühena vähestest internetis lahkas ja on tõenäoliselt kõige tuntum seriaali tõttu, mis oli algusest peale planeeritud kestma 5 aastat.
Igal juhul oli see esimene tellimus neljast 1998. aastal ja tänaseks on tellimuste arv kasvanud 32-ni. Esimese tellimuse kohta infot otsides lõin uudishimust kokku kõigi tellimuste summad ja sai numbri, mis tuli 39 000 krooni lähedale…natuke hirmuäratav, kuid on halvemaid viise raha kulutamiseks kui raamatute ostmine.
Üks kentsakas seik veel. Umbes 2002. aastast langes ilukirjanduse osakaal drastiliselt ning nende asemele hakkas tulema rohkem populaarteadusliku kirjandust, monograafe ja kogumike.
Preservation Follies – Edward Glaeser arutleb osade New Yorgi piirkondade “miljööväärtuslikuks” kuulutamise üle, mis avaldab mõju kinnisvara hindadele ja uute hoonete ehitamisele. Arutlust toetavad ka konkreetsed arvutused, kuid sõnum on piisavalt universaalne, et ka Tallinnale sobida:
Replying to his critics (of whom I was one), Wolfe wrote in the Village Voice that “to take their theory to its logical conclusion would be to develop Central Park. . . . When you consider the thousands and thousands of people who could be housed in Central Park if they would only allow them to build it up, boy, the problem is on the way to being solved!” But building high-rises in dense neighborhoods means that you don’t have to build in green areas, whether they’re urban parks or undeveloped areas far from the city. In fact, a true preservationist should realize that building up in one area reduces the pressure to take down other buildings. Once the landmarks commission decides that a building can be knocked down—as was the case in the Battle of Carnegie Hill—it should logically demand that its replacement be as tall as possible.
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5 Reasons The Internet Could Die At Any Moment – huvitavalt ja lõbusalt esitatud meeldetuletus sellest, et internet ei toimi ainult heal usul ja laste unenägudel vaid infrastruktuuril ja juriidilisel raamistikul, mis pole täiuslik vaid pidevalt täienev võrgustike ja standardite rägastik, mille toimimise detailidega on kursis vähesed kasutajad:
The truth is, the Internet travels from continent to continent by way of a network of trans-oceanic cables, each thousands of miles long and only as thick around as a thumb. If enough of these high-pressure porn hoses were compromised, international Internet communication could collapse entirely.
Since these cables are the backbone of a huge portion of the global economy, they must be pretty well protected, right? Guards in armored diving suits, badass nuclear submarines inexplicably captained by Scotsmen, Kraken…
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The Beholden State – detailne, põhjalik ja kahjuks kohati õõvastav artikkel ametiühingute rollist California järjest keerulisemas eelarve olukorras. Kui esmapilgul tundub, et tegu on eelkõige ameeriklaste probleemiga, siis tahaks meelde tuletada, et Kreekas on olukord isegi hullem samas kui mitmed vanemad Euroopa Liidu liikmed pole veel õieti enda avaliku sektori ametiühingute väljapressimisele poliitiliste tagajärgede tõttu reageerima hakanud:
How public employees became members of the elite class in a declining California offers a cautionary tale to the rest of the country, where the same process is happening in slower motion. The story starts half a century ago, when California public workers won bargaining rights and quickly learned how to elect their own bosses—that is, sympathetic politicians who would grant them outsize pay and benefits in exchange for their support. Over time, the unions have turned the state’s politics completely in their favor. The result: unaffordable benefits for civil servants; fiscal chaos in Sacramento and in cities and towns across the state; and angry taxpayers finally confronting the unionized masters of California’s unsustainable government.
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The Thrill of Flying the SR-71 Blackbird – ilmselt ei paku ühe piloodi lood maailma kiireima lennukiga lendamisest kõigile huvi, kuid kaasahaaravalt kirjutatud loole võiks siiski võimaluse anda. Lisaks teravatele intsidentidele, mis on juba iseenesest huvitavad, pakub maailma kiireima lennukiga liikumine ka kõige igavamatel momentidel võimalusi, millest lihtsurelikud saavad ainult unistada:
One day, high above Arizona , we were monitoring the radio traffic of all the mortal airplanes below us. First, a Cessna pilot asked the air traffic controllers to check his ground speed. ‘Ninety knots,’ ATC replied. A twin Bonanza soon made the same request. ‘One-twenty on the ground,’ was the reply. To our surprise, a navy F-18 came over the radio with a ground speed check. I knew exactly what he was doing. Of course, he had a ground speed indicator in his cockpit, but he wanted to let all the bug-smashers in the valley know what real speed was ‘Dusty 52, we show you at 620 on the ground,’ ATC responded. The situation was too ripe. I heard the click of Walter’s mike button in the rear seat. In his most innocent voice, Walter startled the controller by asking for a ground speed check from 81,000 feet, clearly above controlled airspace. In a cool, professional voice, the controller replied, ‘ Aspen 20, I show you at 1,982 knots on the ground.’ We did not hear another transmis sion on that frequency all the way to the coast.
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The Street as Platform – Daniel Hill kirjeldas ühe linnaplaneerimise organisatsiooni jaoks tuleviku tänavaid juba praegu kasutusel oleva tehnoloogia baasil. Milliseid andmeid ja kes kogub, kuidas neid andmeid kasutatakse ja kuidas mõjutavad meid ümbritsevat keskkonda on vaid üksikud küsimused paljudest:
The patterns of data in the streets, the systems that enable and carry them, the quality of those connections, their various levels of openness or privacy, will all affect the way the street feels rather more than street furniture or road signs. Holes in data, public and private, may become more relevant than the pothole in the pavement – until you trip over it, at least.
The sketch above deliberately traverses quite a few modes of activity – from private to public; individual to civic; commercial to recreational; residential to vocational. And in all instances systems are in flux, in development, or require implementing, testing and shaping.
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Realty Check: ‘Extreme Makeover’ Downsizes Its Dream Homes – isegi Eesti telekanalitel jooksnud saada kodude uuendamisest on seoses kinnisvarahindade langemisega olnud sunnitud kohanema, sest kaugeltki kõigi “õnnelike” jaoks pole saatus naeratanud vaid kohati kaasa toonud kõrgemad kulud:
After the cameras have gone, another trend has been developing: Homeowners struggle to keep up with their expensive new digs. In many cases, the bigger, more lavish homes have come with bigger, more lavish utility bills. And bigger tax assessments. Some homeowners have tapped the equity of their super-sized homes only to fall behind on the higher mortgage payments.
The show’s producers say they are aware of the problem and are making changes appropriate to current economic reality: downsizing.
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Biography of Usain Bolt, Mutant – Esquire’is ilmunud portreelugu Usain Boltist ehk maailma kiireimast mehest. Lisaks imemehe tagataustale võib artiklist saada ülevaate mehe selgroo deformatsiooni mõjust tema karjäärile ja tema igapäevastest tegemistest, millest treeningud moodustavad väikese osa. Üks täheldus tundus aga eriti huvitav:
Soon Mills noticed that some of his younger runners, realizing that they could never hope to match Bolt but not prepared to give up their world-conquering dreams, shifted their attention from the 100- and 200-meter distances to other events, to hurdles or longer distances in which they might still hope to make a mark. The 400, for example.
As it happens, a group of five 400-meter runners is rounding the oval right now, their last circuit of today’s practice, and though it’s not a real race, you can tell from across the field that they’re trying hard, shoulders stiffening, cheeks bellowing, each wanting to win. Bolt and the others stand up and cup their hands to their mouths and start shouting encouragement. Bolt rarely races the 400, hates the long practices, the lung-searing, vomit-inducing arduousness of the extra training required to run that distance at an elite level. Still, he thinks that someday he might give the 400 a serious go. And the general consensus in the world track community is that if he were ever to dedicate himself to the 400, he could dominate it as thoroughly as he has the 100 and 200. And after that? Who knows. But he’s kind of interested in the long jump, too. At this point, there’s every reason to believe that Bolt is like Alexander in his prime, a young conqueror whose future conquests will not be determined by ability but simply by desire and discipline.
Huvitavaid artikleid nädalavahetuseks kommenteerimine on välja lülitatud
Lõuna-Euroopa riikide vastutustundetu laenamine mugavama elu nimel on vallandamas kriisi, mida keegi Euroopas näha ei soovi. Kes teema vastu huvi tunneb, siis see on tõenäoliselt leidnud artikleid suurematest väljaannetest. Artiklid New York Times’is:
“It is a problem,” said Alessandro Leipold, a former acting director of the I.M.F.’s European department. “It should not be that difficult — they did it in Hungary and Latvia. But the egos are different in industrialized countries.”
A case can be made that if Greece had sought help from the fund late last year after the forecast for its budget deficit doubled, the amount of support needed to reassure investors would have been much less than the 120 billion euros that even now might not be enough.
With direct comparisons being drawn with the panic prompted by the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, European leaders promised to provide tens of billions of euros to Athens within the next three weeks. But Germany was still insisting on tougher economic reforms from Greece before approving a €100bn-€120bn (£89bn-£104bn) joint EU bailout, leading to fresh turbulence on Europe’s financial markets.
Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, promised swift action to end the crisis, but said it was a mistake for Greece to have been allowed to join the single currency. “In 2000 we had a situation when we were confronted with the question of whether Greece should be able to join the eurozone,” she said. “It turned out that the decision [in favour] may not have been scrutinised closely enough.”
Eurozone and IMF negotiators have held 10 days of discussions in Athens and are pressing the Greek authorities to commit to an even more far-reaching austerity programme than was deemed necessary by eurozone authorities in January.
Eurozone officials said the talks in Athens had steered well clear of a subject that is weighing heavily on financial markets: whether Greece will have to restructure its debts, inflicting severe losses on holders of Greek government bonds.
Economists said the eurozone and IMF negotiators appeared unwilling to broach the idea of a Greek debt restructuring for fear of causing mayhem in international bond markets.
annavad toimuvas igati asjaliku ülevaate, mida vürtsitavad Edward Hugh tagasihoidliku hoiatusega, et lõunas toimuv võib elu oluliselt keerulisemaks ka idas teha.
If this awful but unfortunately plausible scenario comes about, there is a clear solution – unfortunately, it is also anathema to Mr. Trichet and Ms. Merkel, and thus unlikely to be discussed seriously until it is too late. This is the standard package that comes to all emerging markets in crisis: a very sharp fall in the euro, restructuring of euro zone fiscal/monetary rules to make them compatible with financial stability, and massive external liquidity support – not because Europe has an external payments problem, but because this is the only way to provide credible budget support that softens the blow of the needed austerity programs.
The liquidity support involved would be large: if we assume that roughly three years of sovereign debt repayments should be fully backed – and it takes that kind of commitment to break such negative sentiment – then approximately $1 trillion would be needed to backstop Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy. It may be that more funds are eventually needed – but in any case, the amounts would be less than the total reserves of China. These amounts would also be reduced as the euro falls; it could be heading back to well under $1 per euro, which is where it stood one decade ago.
The American Interest on avaldanud Walter Russell Mead’i mõtiskluse, mis käsitleb pigem poliitilisi kui majanduslike küsimusi ja toob välja ühe huvitava seiga:
It is tempting and superficially agreeable for Americans to gloat about Europe’s troubles. After all, every time something goes wrong in American domestic or economic policy, European elites and journalists are quick to gloat and find fault. After listening to two years of stern and self righteous lectures about the ‘failure’ of the American capitalist model, many Americans who deal with the Europeans are quietly enjoying the spectacle of the smug Europeans writhing in helpless indecision and pain over the continent’s self-inflicted wounds.
But bad news for the EU is bad news for us too. Irritating as a strong EU can be, a weak and divided Europe is much worse. A peaceful, prosperous and geopolitically boring continent that exports tedious platitudes about global governance is a far better place than any other Europe we have seen in modern times and American national interests are in no way enhanced by economic and political instability in the Mediterranean — to say nothing of Ukraine and Turkey.
Praegust olukorda vaadates tekib tahes tahtmata küsimus, et mida peaks nendest inimestest arvama, kes soovitasid veel üpris hiljuti Eestil võlakirjasid väljastada (mitte, et Vitsur ise varem sama poleks soovinud) või osade erakondade soovist lõppenud buumi tippajal kulutusi kasvatada tempos, mis oleks tähendanud võlakirjad väljastamist? Mis intressile peaks Eesti praegu rahaturgudel otsa vaatama kui nii oleks läinud ja kui suur oleks riigivõlg tervikuna? Mulle tundub, et kui nii oleks läinud, siis oleks meie praegune majandusseis tundunud lausa ahvatlev.
Tänane Äripäev üllatas pakkudes lausa kolm ettevõtlustoetuste suhtes kriitilist kirjutist. Otsa tegi lahti Eksporditoetused rikuvad konkurentsi, mis toovad mõned ettevõtlustoetustega seotud küsimused kenasti välja sealhulgas probleemid konkurentsiga ja vormistamisele mineva ressursiga. Täiendavad kommentaarid EAS’i juhatuse liikmelt ja majandusministeeriumi ettevõtluse talituse juhatajalt on samuti valgustavad, sest sisulistele küsimustele mingit vastust sealt ei leia.
“Kui EAS presenteerib ennast, siis me kuuleme, kuipalju miljardeid kui mitmele projektile on jagatud. Aga ma pole veel kuskil näinud mingeid arvestusi, kui palju need projektid on sisse toonud, millist tulu toodavad firmadele ja riigile. Milline on tasuvus? Kust me siis teame, millised projektid tegelikult toetust vajavad,” märkis Puusaag.
Headel aegadel, olgugi üllatel eesmärkidel, tehtud otsused ja toetussüsteem vajavad muutmist. Kas või seepärast, et riiklike eksporditoetuste mõju ekspordile on üldjuhul olematu või isegi negatiivne. Nii on väitnud Ülemiste ettevõtlusinkubaatori endine juht Jüri Saar, tuginedes 1989. aastal Maailmapangale valminud uurimusele, mis juhtis tähelepanu tõsiasjale, et eksporditoetused üldjuhul mingites makrotasandi näitajates ei väljendu.
Tegu on inkubaatori blogisse omal ajal kirjutatud postitustega, millele olen ka varasemalt Vabalogis viidanud.
Kõigist neist artiklitest kumab läbi probleem, mis leidis eelmises ettevõtlustoetuste postituse kommentaarides korduvalt rõhutamist: meil ei ole mingit tõsiselt võetavat (avalikku?) ülevaadet ettevõtlustoetuste tõhususe ja mõjuvuse kohta.
Mõne valitud toetusmeetme kitsendatud analüüs võib jätta mulje, et toetusmeede on kasulik ja vajalik, kuid ilma kontrollgrupita ei ole taoline analüüs eriti tõsiselt võetav. Samas võiks päris huvitavaid tulemusi anda juba ainuüksi see, kui võrrelda äriplaanides toodud prognoose (EAS soovib neid vähemalt kolme aasta ulatuses) ja tänast tegelikku olukord. Tulemused võivad olla kargelt karastavad, eriti arvestades sellega, et mingi projekti potentsiaali hindamisel ja rahastamise kaalumisel mängivad üpris olulist rolli just prognoosid. See oleks hea bakalaureusetöö teema mõnele ambitsioonikale tudengile, seda loomulikult juhul kui algandmetele ligipääsu ei takistata.
Kuna jutt juba ettevõtlustoetustele läks, siis mõned asjakohased viited veel.
Decisions that seem plausible within the halls of a legislative body or a government bureaucracy can be wildly at odds with what entrepreneurs and their backers really need. When Australia legalized the venture capital limited partnership structure earlier this decade, for instance, legislators worried that foreign funds or firms might exploit the favorable tax treatment these entities enjoyed. So they required that each company backed by a venture partnership have at least half its assets in Australia. The venture funds found that this restriction handicapped the companies in their portfolio. The entrepreneurs could not expand their software development activities in India or their manufacturing operations in China without putting the venture funds’ tax status in danger, even as they competed against American ventures that made heavy use of “off-shoring.”
Economists have also focused on a second problem, delineated in the theory of regulatory capture. These writings suggest that private and public sector entities will organize to capture direct and indirect subsidies that the public sector hands out. For instance, programs geared toward boosting nascent entrepreneurs may instead end up boosting cronies of the nation’s rulers or legislators. The annals of government venturing programs abound with examples of efforts that have been hijacked in such a manner.
VoxEU avaldas täna William Kerri ja Ramana Nanda hiljutiste uurimuste kokkuvõtte pealkirjaga Entrepreneurial finance and public policy, mis toob muuhulgas välja kolm argumenti, miks avalik sektor ei peaks võitjaid valima:
As outlined above, idiosyncratic factors dominate the determination of which firms grow and survive. This implies that policymakers who focus on “picking winners” ex ante through subsidies are unlikely to be accurate in their assessment. Venture capitalists spend their whole lives doing this, and still over 50% of their investments are terminated below cost. Rather, policymakers should focus on structuring competitive financial markets to facilitate experimentation. While potentially less flashy, picking the right system is a far better stepping stone to stimulating entrepreneurship and the associated productivity growth.
A growing body of research documents that non-financial factors play an important role in explaining the choice of individuals to become entrepreneurs (e.g. Hamilton 2000 and Hurst and Lusardi 2004). In addition, Nanda (2010) shows that wealthy individuals are more likely to become entrepreneurs because they don’t face the discipline of external finance, allowing them to start weaker or “lifestyle” firms. Subsidising individuals can thus have a perverse effect of encouraging entry or keeping alive lower ability entrepreneurs – who would otherwise have not received credit from the formal capital markets.
Finally, the effect of relaxing financial constraints on the growth of firms seems relatively weak. In Kerr and Nanda (2010), we examine these intensive margin effects in the context of the US branch banking deregulations. Figure 1A and 1B document how small the entry size effect was compared to the effect on entry rates. This pattern is robust to controlling for the potentially confounding effect of an increase in smaller entrants. This limited response implies that subsidies to existing firms may not be a useful way to boost growth, even if one could pick winners.
Kõik punktid on pikemalt ja põhjalikumalt kokkuvõtvas artiklis lahti seletatud ja sealt võib leida ka viited Kerri ja Nanda mitmele artiklitele, mis kokkuvõtte aluseks.
Eelmisel nädalal ilmus Äripäeva arvamuslehel Dani Rodrik’ult Riiklikud stiimulid on ajutised, mis on tänaseks kadunud Äripäeva arhiivi, kuid tundus olevat inglise keelse artikli The Return of Industrial Policy tõlge. Rodrik on aktiivse avaliku sektori sekkumise poolt ka varem sõna võtnud ja toob enda artiklis samuti välja kolm soovitust/ettepanekut, ning jõuab lõpuks järelduseni:
The standard rap against industrial policy is that governments cannot pick winners. Of course they can’t, but that is largely irrelevant. What determines success in industrial policy is not the ability to pick winners, but the capacity to let the losers go – a much less demanding requirement. Uncertainty ensures that even optimal policies will lead to mistakes. The trick is for governments to recognize those mistakes and withdraw support before they become too costly.
Avaliku valiku (public choice) probleemid on need, mis teevad teoreetiliselt sobivad ja isegi ideaalsed lahendused parktikas sageli võimatuks, sest ükski poliitika ega meede ei kujune huvidevabas vaakumis samas kui potentsiaalsete kasusaajate ajendid taoliste meedete rakendamist kujundada on enam kui arvestatavad, eriti väikeriigis.
Eksporditoetused rikuvad konkurents
Puusaag: keegi pole arvestanud, kui suurt tulu toetused tagasi toovad
Vältimatult on peaaegu neli aastat tagasi valminud magistritöö juba vaikselt aeguma hakanud, sest vahepeal on nii mõndagi juhtunud, mis on auhindade profiili oluliselt tõstnud, kuid millest pole olnud erilist põhjust kirjutada. Viga, mida annab mingil määral parandada.
More than 50,000 people registered for the prize and downloaded the Netflix data. And on Sept. 21, Netflix (NFLX) CEO Reed Hastings handed a $1 million check to the winners, BellKor’s Pragmatic Chaos, a seven-member international coalition.
The winning team, which includes scientists from AT&T (T) Research, Yahoo’s (YHOO) Israel lab, and computer scientists from Austria and Canada, blended more than 700 different statistical models into their formula. They studied every conceivable angle. They looked at the correlations of one movie to the next (Which Godfather Part II lovers are most likely to rent Scarface?). They studied users’ moods. (Once people start panning movies, it turns out, they give lower-than-normal ratings even to movies they like.) And they found that when people rank lots of movies in a single day, from dozens to 5,000, they think differently than when rating a movie they just saw.
More than 50,000 people registered for the prize and downloaded the Netflix data. And on Sept. 21, Netflix (NFLX) CEO Reed Hastings handed a $1 million check to the winners, BellKor’s Pragmatic Chaos, a seven-member international coalition.
The winning team, which includes scientists from AT&T (T) Research, Yahoo’s (YHOO) Israel lab, and computer scientists from Austria and Canada, blended more than 700 different statistical models into their formula. They studied every conceivable angle. They looked at the correlations of one movie to the next (Which Godfather Part II lovers are most likely to rent Scarface?). They studied users’ moods. (Once people start panning movies, it turns out, they give lower-than-normal ratings even to movies they like.) And they found that when people rank lots of movies in a single day, from dozens to 5,000, they think differently than when rating a movie they just saw.
Auhinna üleandmise üritusel lubas Netflix’i esindaja uusi auhindu ja eduka programmiga jätkamist:
While announcing the prize winners, Netflix officials announced plans for a second Netflix Prize. Details, they say, will be revealed in coming days. But it’s clear that data miners will be combing through much richer sets of user info. While the first set of data included only the renting and recommending behavior of anonymous customers, the second contest, says Hunt, will include demographic information, such as geography, age, and gender, along with details of movies the users have previously rented. The goal, he says, is to be able to size up customers when they first arrive on the site—without waiting for them to establish a data footprint. “We want to predict people earlier in the cycle,” says Hunt.
Uue auhinna ja eesmärkide väljakuulutamine aga venis ja venis ja venis. Lõpuks selgus, et Netflix’i poolt väljastatud andmebaas polnud piisavalt anonüümne ja osade arvates riivas see inimeste õigust privaatsusele, mis videolaenutuste puhul rajaneb ühele vanemale seadusele:
The lawsuit claims that Netflix’s information disclosure was illegal under the Video Privacy Protection Act (VPPA), which was itself passed in response to a bizarre video rental data leak. In the late 1980s, during the infamous Robert Bork Supreme Court confirmation process, a reporter from Washington’s City Paper simply went down to a local video store, asked the manager for Bork’s rental history, and was given a photocopied set of records… which he then wrote about.
There was no “Brokeback Factor” here, though, just a set of films unremarkable for anything salacious. The privacy break was so egregious, however, that Congress soon passed the VPPA, which requires those renting video cassettes and similar items to abide by a host of consumer privacy protections. The issue in the current lawsuit is whether Netflix was negligent in releasing the “anonymized” and “perturbed” data set.
Kui kaasus oleks kohtusse jõudnud, siis oleks see võinud Netflixi jaoks kõige mustema stsenaariumi järgi tähendada miljonitesse dollaritesse ulatuvaid väljamakseid, mida iga ettevõtte üritab võimalusel vältida. Netflix ei ole erand:
Netflix has canceled its $1 million contest aimed at finding a better recommendation engine in the wake of a privacy lawsuit settlement. The company informed its users today via the company blog, noting that it had “reached an understanding” with the Federal Trade Commission, leading it to ditch the Netflix Prize contes
Nii palju siis sellest.
Tundub, et kohtukaasus rajanes peamiselt ühel uurimusel (pdf), mille autorid on Netflixi andmebaaside anonüümsuse kohta ka korduma kippuvad küsimused kokku pannud. Huvitav on ka uurimuse autorite avalik kiri Netflixile, eriti kommentaaride osas, kus arutletakse anonüümsuse ja privaatsuse üle andmebaasides ning progressist teaduses, kui nõuded privaatsusele hakkavad ületama mõistlikkuse piire. Dan Kaminsky jõuab ühes enda kommentaaris olulise seigani:
The reality is that the first open competition with real, solid data, has ended with a coda that says “Don’t do this, the privacy people might get the lawyers to fire you.” And you (should) know, every large company is really run by the lawyers. So the game is probably over.
It is sad, though. Social science was about to have more, and better data, than the hard sciences.
Kahetsusväärne areng, kuid õnneks saatuslik mitte niivõrd auhindade kasutamisele tervikuna kuivõrd ühele auhinnale, mis käsitles mahukate andmebaaside analüüsi kindlate seoste leidmiseks.
Positiivse arenguna võib välja tuua, et natuke rohkem kui kuu tagasi anti USA föderaalsetele agentuuridele õigus auhindasid ametlikult kasutama hakata ja seda grantidega sarnastel alustel:
An Office of Management and Budget (OMB) memo last week gave federal agencies the green light to use more grand challenges and prizes to spur innovation. The memo, signed by Jeffrey D. Zients, OMB’s Deputy Director for Management, points out that agencies with funds for grants can use that funding and authority to sponsor grand challenges and prizes.
Zients encouraged agencies to use such competitions, a form of “crowdsourcing” that gathers broad public input in the search for innovative solutions to problems. Agencies were urged to collaborate with outside organizations for the design and management of these prize competitions. OMB promised that within four months the Administration would have a Web-based platform for agencies to post their prize and challenge competitions and invite communities of problem solvers to take part.
Loodetavasti annab see tõuke laiaulatuslikumaks katsetamiseks auhindadega, mis võimaldab ehk mõnevõrra täpsemalt välja selgitada, millistel tingimustel ja millistes valdkondades on auhindade potentsiaal kõige suurem nagu märgiti postituse alguses mainitud New York Times’i artiklis:
Five years into their prize, the Kravises are happy with how their prize is evolving — having learned from past mistakes. “It’s trial and error,” Mrs. Kravis said. “You’re not going to hit a home run each time.”
Auhinnad – tagasilöögid ja uued horisondid kommenteerimine on välja lülitatud
Eelmisel nädalavahetusel polnud tõenäoliselt üheski seltskonnas pääsu vulkaanituha ja lennukeeldude temaatilistest diskussioonidest. Ise pakkusin ühe taolise käigus välja, et ei lähe kaua enne kui võsast hüppavad välja poliitikud ja raudteeaktivistid, kes ebameeldivalt kitsendavas ja frustreerivas olukorras leiavad, et Eestis tuleks nüüd kiiremas korras rongiühendust Euroopaga arendada.
Mis mõlemast loost silma torkab on soovimatus rahastamisküsimustele natuke tõsisemalt mõelda mitte piirduda ainult enda nägemust kinnitavate, kuid paljuski sobimatute näidete välja toomisega. Infrastruktuuri rahastamispõhimõtetest informeeritus võimaldaks ehk samuti sisulisemat diskussiooni, kus oleks võimalik peatuda tõelistel valikutel mitte soovunelmatel, mida vürtsitavad anekdoodid.
Rahastamisküsimused võivad küll igavad olla, kuid piiratud eelarveliste vahendite juures tähendab miljarditesse ulatuvatest investeeringutest kirjutamine vältimatult valikuid. Kust see raha tuleb? Haridus ja tervishoid vajavad paljude hinnangul täiendavat rahastamist täpselt samuti nagu on paljuski õigustatud ootused ka päästetöötajatel ja pensionäridel. IRL pole maksude tõstmist pooldanud ja pigem silma paistnud vastupidise retoorikaga.
Ajutised tõrked lennuliikluses, mis võivad osutuda tagantjärgi täiesti üleliigseks, ei ole mingi argument miljarditesse ulatuvateks investeeringuteks. Lisaks eelnevas punktis toodud valikutele tuleb arvestada ka püsikuludega, mis taolise investeeringuga kaasnevad. Eestis investeeritakse ainuüksi teede remontimiseks ja hooldamiseks iga aasta üle miljardi krooni. Vähemalt tuleb see raha kütuseaktsiisist ehk inimesed maksavad ise nii teede, sõidukite kui kütuse eest – seik, mida Luts lihtsalt ignoreerib samas kordagi mainimata, millises ulatuses reisijate vedamist rongidega doteeritakse.
Rongidega kaasnevad omad probleemid, mis on märksa sagedasemad kui lennuliiklust häirivad tuhapilved. Näiteid ei tasu otsida kaugemalt kui möödunud talvest, mis oli ootamatult lumerohke nii Skandinaavias kui Euroopas. Kiire googeldus võimaldab leida ühe illustreeriva artikli Rootsi kohta. Kas on üleliigne mainida, et lennuliiklust lumi sarnaselt ei häirinud. Kas sellest oleks pidanud kohe järeldama, et raudtee asemel peaks lennundusse investeerima?
Raudtee ja rongid on inimestele sümpaatsed täpselt selle hetkeni kui selgub, et raudtee ja kiirrongid hakkavad liikuma nende kodu lähedal. Keskkonnamõjude (keskkond ei ole ainult loodus!) hindamine võib nii mõnegi potentsiaalse raudtee rajamisel möödapääsmatuks takistuseks kujuneda ja maade sundvõõrandamise on keeruline, pikaajaline ning kulukas protsess.
Enamus inimesi ei ole teadlikud, kui ulatuslikult on Eestis raudteetransport tegelikult doteeritud. Olen sellest varasemalt juba kirjutanud ja ei hakka ennast kordama. Raudteetransport inimeste vedamiseks, eriti kiirrongidega, ei õigusta ennast majanduslikult sedavõrd hõredalt asustatud piirkonnas nagu seda on Eesti. Väiteid, et enamus hakkaks eelistama rongi lennukile näiteks Berliini minekul pole juba ainuüksi ajaliste vahede tõttu eriti tõsiselt võetavad ja meil pole veel juttu olnud sellest, milliseks kujuneks piletihind ilma dotatsioonideta. Ärireisija on aga eelkõige nõus maksma kiiruse mitte mugavuse eest, seega langeb üks grupp reisijad arvestusest välja.
Pidev keskkonnasõbralikkusele appelleerimine kipub samuti pigem retoorikaks taanduma kuni juttu pole konkreetseks läinud – mis liinid, kui palju reisijaid ja siis hakkaks keskkonnamõjusid hindama. Tulemused võivad üllatavaltki ebameeldivad olla neile, kes unistavad kiirrongist. Pakosta väited sellest, et kohaliku raudteeinfrat rahastatakse aga ainult vedajate tulust on lihtsalt vale. Praegune suurim raudteeinfra objekt on Koidula piirpunkt, kus ainult vedajate rahaga poleks üldse midagi toimunud.
Lõpetuseks lisaks vaid niipalju, et kuna töötan vahetult infrastruktuuriprojektidega tegelevas ettevõttes (nii teed, raudteed, lennujaamad kui sadamad), siis täiendavate miljardite investeerimine infrastruktuuri ainult rõõmustaks mind, sest tooks tööd juurde ja võimaldaks rohkem teenida. Sellele vaatamata ei näe ma mingit põhjust ilma tasuvusanalüüsita deklareerida kui vajalik on Eesti jaoks kiirrongi ühendus või rongipraam/tunnel Soome.
Loodetavasti võimaldab see lugejale natuke tõsisemalt võtta üleskutset piiratud vahendeid tasakaalukalt ja mõistlikult kasutada ning suhtuda skeptiliselt oportunistlikesse üleskutsetesse.
Tasuta lõunaid ei ole… on ainult raha vajavad valikud.
6 põhjust suhtuda skeptiliselt raudteeinvesteeringutesse kommenteerimine on välja lülitatud
