Iirimaa edusammud viimase paarikümne aasta jooksul pole kellelgi märkamata jäänud, kuid tõenäoliselt ei arvanud keegi, et neil aegade lõpuni hästi läheb. Iga juhul on viimase aasta arengud piisavalt problemaatilised, et lõpuks pälvida mõne suurema väljaande tähelepanu nagu
BusinessWeek’i Ireland: The End of the Miracle annab lühikese ülevaate arengutest ja trendidest ning näeb Iirimaa probleemide taga pigem Eurot, mille madalad intressid põhjustasid Iirimaal paljuski sarnase olukorra sellele, mis Eestis:
The average house price topped $490,000 at the beginning of last year, an increase of more than 300% in just over a decade, compared with 130% in the U.S. Two years ago residential building accounted for more than 12% of the Irish economy, with over 90,000 new homes constructed. According to the Economic & Social Research Institute, that was double what the country needed.
Home prices fell by 7% in 2007 and should drop further this year. “There are a lot of people who bought at the top in 2006 who are now in negative equity and don’t even realize it,” says Karl Deeter, co-founder of Irish Mortgage Brokers in Dublin. Davy, a Dublin brokerage, predicts a net loss of 20,000 construction jobs this year.
BusinessWeek’i lugu lõppeb sellega, et kui Iirimaa ei oleks eurotsoonis, siis oleks neil vähemalt intressimääradega võimalik problemaatilist olukorda leevendada. Samas on USA praeguse olukorra tagamaad paljuski just varasemate perioodide intressimäärade langetamise tulemus olukorras, kus kiire ja ebamugav korrektsioon oleks võimaldanud tänastest probleemidest hoiduda.
Stefan Karlsson on aga viimaste nädalate jooksul Iirimaa olukorda kahel korral lahanud. Esimesel korral juhtis ta tähelepanu sellele, et kuigi Iirimaa ei saa ise intressimäärasid langetada, siis see võib (nende õnneks) luua olukorra, kus pikem virelemisperiood asendub valusama kuid kiire kohanemisega, mille järel majanduskasv taastub:
There are thus good reasons to blame Ireland’s problems on EMU (given the ECB’s inflationary policies), but not because it stops them from inflating more now but because it have compelled them to inflate too much in the past. They thus arguably should not have joined in 1999, but withdrawing at this point is not a good idea. Ultimately, the only way for EMU to work in the long run is if it becomes less inflationary than it has been so far.
Enda teises postituses annab Stefan teada, et Iirimaa on ametlikult (kaks kvartalit järjest) jõudnud majanduslanguse faasi, kus majandustegevus tõmbub kokku:
What the numbers show is that volume GNP in the fourth quarter of 2007 is up a mere 1.2% compared to the fourth quarter of 2006. What’s worse, the quarterly GNP contracted a full 2.2%, i.e. nearly 9% at an annual rate. Quarterly GDP contracted 0.8%, or more than 3% at an annual rate. So there can be little doubt that economic activity in Ireland contracted during the fourth quarter of 2007.
Looking at the details, you can see a dramatic decline in fixed investments in general and residential investments in particular. Private consumption seems to be holding up, but one can question how sustainable that is. What is even more worrisome is the rapid increase in government spending. That is certainly not sound from a long term perspective and this implies that private economic activity is faring even worse than the GDP/GNP numbers suggest.
Eks eestlastelgi ole siit omi järeldusi teha, mis on seotud just avaliku sektori kulutuste kärpimisega.
Iirimaa eduloo lõpp? kommenteerimine on välja lülitatud
Kes vähegi Vabalogist uusi postitusi otsib, see on tõenäoliselt märganud, et neid ei teki siia juurde päris sellise tihedusega kui võiks. Igal juhul on plaanis seda olukord oluliselt parandada, sest teemasid millest kirjutada on ja nii 30 postitust, mis vajavad viimistluseks natuke rohkem aega ootavad “draftidena”.
Seniks kannatust ja heitke pilk blog@inkubaatorisse, kuhu läheb rohkem ettevõtlusega seotud teemasid. Teise blogi olemas olu mõjutab oluliselt ka Vabalogi postituste arvu, kuid hiljemalt mai keskel peaks see oluliselt muutuma seoses minu lahkumisega SA Tallinna Ettevõtlusinkubaatoritest.
Kindlasti üritan aga vähemalt korra nädalas midagi huvitavat kirjutada.
Vabalog lähiajal kommenteerimine on välja lülitatud
David Leonhardt’i artikkel Can’t Grasp Credit Crisis? Join the Club New York Times’is on hulgaliselt viitamist leidnud, sest tundub olevat üks selgemaid ja lühemaid kirjeldusi sellest, mis olid praeguse kriisi peamisteks liikumapanevateks jõududeks:
It really started in 1998, when large numbers of people decided that real estate, which still hadn’t recovered from the early 1990s slump, had become a bargain. At the same time, Wall Street was making it easier for buyers to get loans. It was transforming the mortgage business from a local one, centered around banks, to a global one, in which investors from almost anywhere could pool money to lend.
The new competition brought down mortgage fees and spurred some useful innovation. Why, after all, should someone who knows that she’s going to move after just a few years have no choice but to take out a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage?
As is often the case with innovations, though, there was soon too much of a good thing. Those same global investors, flush with cash from Asia’s boom or rising oil prices, demanded good returns. Wall Street had an answer: subprime mortgages.
Alan Greenspan (keda näeb praeguse olukorra taga ka Leonhardt) sai Financial Times’is enda seisukoha välja öelda artiklis We will never have a perfect model of risk ja selgitada, mis tema arvates praegu finantsturgudel toimuv on just puuduliku riskide hindamisega seotud:
The essential problem is that our models – both risk models and econometric models – as complex as they have become, are still too simple to capture the full array of governing variables that drive global economic reality. A model, of necessity, is an abstraction from the full detail of the real world. In line with the time-honoured observation that diversification lowers risk, computers crunched reams of historical data in quest of negative correlations between prices of tradeable assets; correlations that could help insulate investment portfolios from the broad swings in an economy. When such asset prices, rather than offsetting each other’s movements, fell in unison on and following August 9 last year, huge losses across virtually all risk-asset classes ensued.
The most credible explanation of why risk management based on state-of-the-art statistical models can perform so poorly is that the underlying data used to estimate a model’s structure are drawn generally from both periods of euphoria and periods of fear, that is, from regimes with importantly different dynamics.
Tyler Cowen pühendas seekord enda New York Times’i kolumni samuti finantsturgudel toimuvale. Aeg ajalt sama teemat enda blogis kajastades on Cowen juba tõstatanud tehingute puudumisega kaasneva problemaatika, kuid It’s Hard To Thaw a Frozen Market võtab mitmed tema mõtted kokku ühes artiklis:
The absence of trading is a big problem. Financial institutions have been stuck holding illiquid assets, whose value cannot be easily determined. Who wants to lend to the institutions holding them? No wonder there is a credit crisis and a general attitude of wait and see.
This gridlock is especially harmful because leverage is so high, and financial institutions are so interconnected through swaps and loans. Institutions that rely so heavily on debt are precarious and need up-to-date information about valuations. When they don’t have it, markets freeze up. This is what has taken policymakers by surprise and turned a real estate crash into a much bigger financial problem.
Kui Cowen’i jutt pakub huvi, siis hiljuti vestles ta EconTalk’i raames finantsturgudel toimuvast Russel Robertsiga enam kui tunni jooksul. Muu hulgas tuleb juttu ka kullastandardist nagu ka sellest, miks kullastandard ei pruugi veel olla mingi lahendus.
Kui leian veel mõne huvitava ja asjakohase artikli, siis lisan siia postitusse, kuid kui keegi oskab mõnda huvitavat artiklit soovitada, siis on see teretulnud kommentaarides.
Valik artikleid USA likviidsuskriisist ja selle tagamaadest kommenteerimine on välja lülitatud
Ma olen viimased paar nädalat suure huviga jälginud, mis USA ja maailma finantsturgudel toimub. Ma ise ei ole suurem finantsspetsialist vaid jälgin pigem mängu sellest punktist, mis toimub mikrotasandil ja kuidas krediidile ligipääs mõjutab uute ettevõtete loomist ja äriideede realiseerimist nagu ka seda, kui subjektiivsed on risk ja väärtus.
Praegune olukord on huvitav ka enda keerulisuses, kus väärtpaberite taga on kuskil kaugel ka reaalsed varad, kuid nende varade väärtust pole enam võimalik hinnata, sest ostu-müügi tehingud on kokku kuivanud. Turg eksisteerib teadupärast aga ainult siis, kui toimuvad tehingud ja riskikalkulatsioonide üheks olulisemaks sisendiks on varahind. Pole hindasid, pole võimalik ka riski hinnata.
Tundub, et olukord läheb enne halvemaks kui paremaks, mis tähendab, et süüdlaste otsimisest pole tõenäoliselt pääsu. Megan McArdle kirjutab, et ühte kindlat isikut või gruppi pole mõtet süüdlaseks teha:
Before we enter into the orgy of blame, I’d suggest that that someone was everyone, almost. Crazy Asian people who thought America was some sort of Miracle Market sent us more money than we needed for investment, inflating an asset price bubble. The Federal Reserve, complacent after more than twenty years of tame inflation, added a little kerosene to an already blazing fire. Silly people decided that real estate prices would continue rocketing upwards forever, and took on ridiculous mortgages that they had no reasonable hope of paying off. Idiot bankers thought that their enormous brains, raffish good looks, and advanced computer models had enabled them to conquer risk.
Eelnev lõik võiks sama hästi käia mõnede kohendustega Eesti praeguse olukorra koht:
Before we enter into the orgy of blame, I’d suggest that that someone was everyone, almost. Crazy Asian people Scandinavians who thought America Estonia was some sort of Miracle Market sent us more money than we needed for investment, inflating an asset price bubble. The Federal Reserve European Central Bank, complacent after more than twenty five years of tame inflation, added a little kerosene to an already blazing fire. Silly people decided that real estate prices would continue rocketing upwards forever, and took on ridiculous mortgages that they had no reasonable hope of paying off. Idiot bankers thought that their enormous brains, raffish good looks, and advanced computer models had enabled them to conquer risk.
Võiks ju täitsa sobida? Mulle tundub, et Eesti on praegu paljuski sarnases olukorras USA’ga ainult, et kui USA majandus väljavaated on pikemas perpsektiivis selgelt positiivsed, siis Eesti puhul võib saatuslikuks osutuda nii demograafiline olukord kui üha aktiivsem sekkumine ettevõtlusesse.
Dr. Tegmark maintains that we are part of a mathematical structure, albeit one gorgeously more complicated than a hexagon, a multiplication table or even the multidimensional symmetries that describe modern particle physics. Other mathematical structures, he predicts, exist as their own universes in a sort of cosmic Pythagorean democracy, although not all of them would necessarily prove to be as rich as our own.
“Everything in our world is purely mathematical — including you,” he wrote in New Scientist.
This bizarre picture is the outcome of a recent series of calculations that take some of the bedrock theories and discoveries of modern cosmology to the limit. Nobody in the field believes that this is the way things really work, however. And so in the last couple of years there has been a growing stream of debate and dueling papers, replete with references to such esoteric subjects as reincarnation, multiple universes and even the death of spacetime, as cosmologists try to square the predictions of their cherished theories with their convictions that we and the universe are real. The basic problem is that across the eons of time, the standard theories suggest, the universe can recur over and over again in an endless cycle of big bangs, but it’s hard for nature to make a whole universe. It’s much easier to make fragments of one, like planets, yourself maybe in a spacesuit or even — in the most absurd and troubling example — a naked brain floating in space. Nature tends to do what is easiest, from the standpoint of energy and probability. And so these fragments — in particular the brains — would appear far more frequently than real full-fledged universes, or than us. Or they might be us.
Groening, 53, is an omnivorous mediaphile, and it shows in his work. The Simpsons began as a straightforward parody of the conventions of domestic sitcoms but quickly turned into a nonstop barrage of pop culture references and allusions. For Futurama, Groening drew upon a childhood shaped by Isaac Asimov stories and the colorful covers of pulp magazines. (There’s a stack of Amazing Stories and Fantastic Adventures from the 1950s on a shelf near a few of his Emmy statuettes.)
Groening shows me another media archive housed nearby in the studio: a wall full of sci-fi paperbacks. He points to some that he and Cohen studied while working on their show. Arthur C. Clarke! Alfred Bester! Stanislaw Lem! Rudy Rucker! Kurt Vonnegut!
* * *
Wired’is ilmus hiljuti ka lugu iPhone’ist, kust selgub muu hulgas kui lühikese ajaga õnnestus Apple’i inseneridel teha seadmest kasutamiskõlbulik, kui salajased olid läbirääkimise operaatoritega ja kuidas iPhone sunnib operaatoreid tootele, mitte toodet operaatorile kohandama:
But as important as the iPhone has been to the fortunes of Apple and AT&T, its real impact is on the structure of the $11 billion-a-year US mobile phone industry. For decades, wireless carriers have treated manufacturers like serfs, using access to their networks as leverage to dictate what phones will get made, how much they will cost, and what features will be available on them. Handsets were viewed largely as cheap, disposable lures, massively subsidized to snare subscribers and lock them into using the carriers’ proprietary services. But the iPhone upsets that balance of power. Carriers are learning that the right phone — even a pricey one — can win customers and bring in revenue. Now, in the pursuit of an Apple-like contract, every manufacturer is racing to create a phone that consumers will love, instead of one that the carriers approve of. “The iPhone is already changing the way carriers and manufacturers behave,” says Michael Olson, a securities analyst at Piper Jaffray.
* * *
Ühes Uus-Meremaa ajalehes ilmus huvitav artikkel ühest väikesest Nikaraagua külast. Selgub, et küla asub poolel teel Kolombia narkolaborite ja USA vahel ja kuna USA piirivalve jälgib piirkonna laevaliiklust ülima tähelepanelikkusega, siis on narkokullerid sunnitud sageli enda laadungi merele loovutama, et mitte tõsisemate süüdistuste osaliseks saada. Erinevad hoovused kannavad aga kokalaadungi selle väikese Nikaraagua küla vetesse, mis on üha rohkem ja rohkem orienteerumas “valgete krabide” püüdmisele:
Those bales of cocaine float, and the currents bring them west right into the chain of islands, beaches and cays which make up the huge lagoons that surround Bluefields on Nicaragua’s Atlantic coast.
“There are no jobs here, unemployment is 85 per cent,” says Moises Arana, who was mayor of Bluefields from 2001 to 2005.
“It is sad to say, but the drugs have made contributions. Look at the beautiful houses, those mansions come from drugs. We had a women come into the local electronics store with a milk bucket stuffed full of cash. She was this little Miskito [native] woman and she had $80,000.”
. . .People here now go beachcombing for miles, they walk until they find packets. Even the lobster fisherman now go out with the pretence of fishing but really they are looking for la langosta blanca – the white lobster.”
. . .
The police and Navy have few resources and less trust from the local public. Bluefields is effectively an anarchist nation – no Government, no organised institutions and the rules are made by community groups.
Given the massive amount of cocaine in town, violence is surprisingly rare. Gunfights are nearly unheard of and most of the town seems to lounge around or play baseball all day and then erupt into a frenzy of energy by late afternoon, fuelled by Flor de Cana, a Nicaraguan rum, fresh fish, an endless supply of native oysters, and “the white lobster”.
“Down by Monkey Point, a family found an entire boat … they stashed it and bought up houses all over town. It was 57 sacks [about 1995kg],” says Jah Boon, a local Rasta man. “Those people have money and still have coke buried in them hills. It is another way of having money in the bank.”
Huvitavat lugemist x 5 (loodusseadustest Futuramani) kommenteerimine on välja lülitatud
Here is the full article, which is interesting throughout; if you read only five magazine-like articles this year, this should be one of them.
I might add that, historically, struggles over new territory tend to bring conflict. The creation of new Arctic “territory” is one of the most important issues in the world right now.
Jutt käib viimases Foreign Affairs’is ilmunud artiklist Arctic Meltdown, mis arutleb Arktika sulamise ja selle võimalike poliitiliste ning kaubanduslike tagajärgede üle. Artikkel on pikema poolne, kuid väärib lugemist kasvõi võimalike mõjude tõttu maailma geopoliitikale:
The shipping shortcuts of the Northern Sea Route (over Eurasia) and the Northwest Passage (over North America) would cut existing oceanic transit times by days, saving shipping companies — not to mention navies and smugglers — thousands of miles in travel. The Northern Sea Route would reduce the sailing distance between Rotterdam and Yokohama from 11,200 nautical miles — via the current route, through the Suez Canal — to only 6,500 nautical miles, a savings of more than 40 percent. Likewise, the Northwest Passage would trim a voyage from Seattle to Rotterdam by 2,000 nautical miles, making it nearly 25 percent shorter than the current route, via the Panama Canal. Taking into account canal fees, fuel costs, and other variables that determine freight rates, these shortcuts could cut the cost of a single voyage by a large container ship by as much as 20 percent — from approximately $17.5 million to $14 million — saving the shipping industry billions of dollars a year. The savings would be even greater for the megaships that are unable to fit through the Panama and Suez Canals and so currently sail around the Cape of Good Hope and Cape Horn. Moreover, these Arctic routes would also allow commercial and military vessels to avoid sailing through politically unstable Middle Eastern waters and the pirate-infested South China Sea. An Iranian provocation in the Strait of Hormuz, such as the one that occurred in January, would be considered far less of a threat in an age of trans-Arctic shipping.
Igal juhul igav ei tohiks sellel planeedil järgmise paarikümne aasta jooksu küll olla.
Mitte just iga päev ei juhtu, et tuntud näitekirjanik, lavastaja, stsenarist ja esseist, kes on ühtlasi ka USA loomeinimeste üks olulisemaid arvamusliidreid tuleks välja pika ja põhjaliku selgitusega sellest, miks ta keeldub enam olemast “brain-dead liberal”. Just seda on aga teinud David Mamet essees Why I’m no longer a Brain-Dead Liberal New Yorgi kultuslehes “The Village Voice”:
And I realized that the time had come for me to avow my participation in that America in which I chose to live, and that that country was not a schoolroom teaching values, but a marketplace.
“Aha,” you will say, and you are right. I began reading not only the economics of Thomas Sowell (our greatest contemporary philosopher) but Milton Friedman, Paul Johnson, and Shelby Steele, and a host of conservative writers, and found that I agreed with them: a free-market understanding of the world meshes more perfectly with my experience than that idealistic vision I called liberalism.
Kui Thomas Sowelli ja Friedmani kirjutused on mulle veel tuttavad, siis Johnson ja Steele on minu jaoks võõrad. Igal juhul on Mameti mõtisklus huvitavalt õpetlik ja annab lootust, et vähemale valitsuse sekkumise vältimisel orienteeritud mõtteviis leiab tänu Mameti esseele natuke tõsisemat vaagimist ka USA loova klassi seas.
David Mamet – kas USA liberaalist libertaariks? kommenteerimine on välja lülitatud
Kuna jutt juba läks David Mametile, siis neli aastat tagasi (2004 aprill) kirjutasin EBS’i Tudengilehte seoses Linnateatri lavastusega “Äri” lisaks näidendi arvustusele väikese tutvustuse David Mametist, mis aitab ehk paremini mõista, miks tema Village Voice’i artikkel ja enese määratlemine libertaarina on päris palju tähelepanu kogunud.
David Mamet ei ole mitte ainult näitekirjanik vaid ka stsenarist ja lavastaja, kes tunnustatud omapärase stiili ja teemakäsitluse tõttu lisaks veel ka ajakirjanduses.
1947. aasta 30. novembril Flossmoori nimelises linnas sündinud David Mamet õppis näitekunsti Goddardi kolledzis ja Neighborhood Playhouse School of Theater’is New Yorgis enne karjääri alustamist professionaalse näitleja ja lavastajana. Läbimurde aastaks kujunes David Mameti jaoks 1976. aasta kui etendusid esimest korda tema lavastused The Duck Variations, Sexual Perversity in Chicago ja American Buffalo.
Mametile kõige omapärasem joon on hõre ja hakitud dialoog, mis sarnaneb nii Harold Pinteri kui Samuel Becketti kirjutatule, kuid mis ei ole niivõrd “loomulik” kui poeetiline, ühendades endas elukogemuse ja tänavaslängi. Saadud kombinatsioon on niivõrd unikaalne, et on teatrikriitikute poolt ristitud “Mametsepak’iks” Tunnustatud näitekirjanikule on omane ka minimalism lavakujunduses, sest nii Oleanna, American Buffalo, kui Glengarry Glen Ross leiavad kõik aset ühes ruumis olgu see kabinet, pood või kontor.
Pärast esialgset läbimurret ei jäänud Mamet kordama juba õpitut. Tema areng näitekirjanikuna jätkus läbi inimsuhete uurimise ja seda just meeste vahele, kes on kaotanud igasugused moraalid ja ekslevad lootusetult hüljatuna näival emotsionaalsel tühermaal. Meeste vaheliste suhete uurimise kulminatsiooniks võib pidada kriisis vaevleva kinnisvarafirma maaklereite vahelisi suhteid ja otsuseid käsitlevat näidendit Glengarry Glen Ross, mis võitis 1984. aastal mitmete teiste auhindades seas ka Pulitzeri.
Elu nagu filmis
Esialgne edu näitekirjanikuna avas David Mametile ka mitmeid Hollywoodi uksi, millest ta julgelt läbi astus. 1981. aastast alates keskendus Mamet peamiselt filmide stsenaariumite kirjutamisele, millest tuntuimad on The Postman Always Rings Twice (James Caini romaani põhjal), The Verdict, The Untouchables, Glengarry Glen Ross, Wag the Dog ja Hannibal. Nagu mitmed teised stsenaristid enne teda, leidis ka Mamet, et kui ta soovib enda kirjutatud kinoekraanil näha sellisena nagu ta ette kujutas, peab ta täitma ka rezissööri rolli.
Esimene rezissööri töö – House of Games – valmis Mametil 1987. aastal. Filmi tunnustati mitmete auhindadega sealhulgas Veneetsia filmifestivalil Pasinetti auhinnaga, mis tagas Mametile võimaluse ka tulevikus enda kätt rezissöörina harjutada. Järgneva viieteistkümne aasta jooksul valmisid Mameti käe all veel sellised filmid nagu Homicide, The Spanish Prisoner, State and Main ja Heist.
David Mameti filmide läbivaks jooneks on petised ja pettus koos kaasneva petliku reaalsusega, mis enamasti filmi lõpus ka vaatajale selgeks saab. Mameti kirev ja terane dialoog ei ole aga ainult teatrihuvilistel, sest sama vaimukust, mida võib kohata näidendites, leiab ka kõigist tema filmidest.
Mitte ainult teatrile ja kinole
Mamet leiab aega ka ajakirjandusele ja temalt on ilmunud mitmeid artikleid ja esseesid, mis käsitlevad teatriga seotud probleeme nagu valgustuse roll, näitlejate häälte elektrooniline võimendus või näitekirjaniku ning näitleja vaheline suhe. Mitmed esseed on hiljem uuesti ilmunud kogumikena, millest tunnustatuim on True and False.
Õnneks ei ole Mameti terane pilk suunatud ainult teatrile vaid sellele kirevale tervikule, mida me kõik õndsalt eluks nimetame. Kaks kogumikku koondavad tema varasemaid esseesid, kus mees käsitleb enda lapsepõlve; proovib mõista, mida tähendab olla juut; selgitab piljardisaalide võlu ja heietab mälestusi sellest, kuidas möödusid tema esimesed aastad New Yorgi teatriringkondades.
Mamet on ka kirglik reisija, kes suudab näha inimeste ja kohtade olemust, mõista nende elu tähtsamaid seiku – kirjeldada elu sellisena nagu ta kuskil leidub olgu see tema praegune kodulinn Cabot, Vermonti osariigis või New Yorgis, kus “liiga paljude ameeriklaste jaoks on elu kommerts ettevõtmine.”
Pension ei tundu legendaarsel näitekirjaniku silmapiiril olevat, sest 2005. aastal peaks esilinastuma tema värskeim film Whistle, mis on ühtlasi viimane film triloogias kuhu kuulvad From Here to Eternity ja The Thin Red Line.
David Mamet: Inimsuhete ja reaalsuse terane vaatleja kommenteerimine on välja lülitatud
Kuna Fidel otsustas lõpuks ameti maha panna, siis on tekkinud olukord piisavalt ebamäärane, et soojenda üles mõtted demokraatlikust ja turumajanduse võimalustele avatud Kuubast. Nagu enamus asjadega selles maailmas pole ka Kuubas lootust kiireteks muutusteks, mis tähendab, et Kuubast kirjutades kaevatakse üles nii vanu mälestusi kui värskeid külastuskogemusi.
My wife and I, as unreconstructed paleo-lefties who support Clause Four, free school meals and NHS dental provision, had long wanted to visit Castro’s Cuba. All the people whose views we respect had said that the Caribbean island was a progressive model whose policies on education and healthcare ought to be copied throughout the world. We went there last April desperately wanting to like the place — after all, if George W. Bush and other right-wing nasties hated Cuba so much, then the country must be on the right tracks.But we returned home terribly disillusioned. Neither of us had been to a country which was so utterly decrepit.
Sarnaseid lugusid võib kindlasti teisigi leida, ent üks huvitavamaid, mis minul õnnestus lugeda pärineb Tim Berry’lt, ettevõtjalt, kelle firma tegeleb äriplaanide tarkvaraga ja kes on nooruspõlves olnud korporatiivkonsultant. Ühe korporatiivkliendi projektiga seoses veetis Tim ka päris mitu nädalat Kuubal. Tema on üks nendest vähestest ameeriklastest, kes on isiklikult Kuubas käinud ja isegi Castroga aega veetnud:
Fidel, however, was like a human magnet. Everybody hung on his every word, not because we had to, not because it was good business, but because he was the kind of leader that attracted attention and admiration. His warmth, his sense of humor, his dedication to ideals, all of that made his personal power obvious. In his presence, it seemed only reasonable that an entire nation could depend on his one-man rule. Even though it was easy to see that Cuba wasn’t working, it was also easy to believe it wasn’t because it didn’t have a great leader. To this day I’m convinced that Fidel would have risen to power almost anywhere. His ideals weren’t working, and Cuba wasn’t working, but Fidel Castro was.
Kuna Tim on ka ajakirjaniku rolli täitnud, siis on tal ka teisi päris huvitavaid täheldusi kohalike mentaliteedist ja suhtumisest:
I liked these people we worked with. And with time I realized that they were spouting slogans and phrases to each other — for example the ubiquitous “companero,” meaning “comrade” — because that was important. Of course they were watching us, and that was off-putting but expected, but when I realized they were also watching each other, and spouting slogans as a protection, that gave me that special intellectual claustrophobia. It made me think how much it meant that I could be on salary with Business International and work on my own time with other publications, without a government interfering. That I could quit and open a travel agency if I wanted. My companeros, on the other hand, were assigned a career. One was the economist, and one was the tour guide, and neither could choose to change. And the worst part of it was that success was clearly related to spouting slogans, not necessarily to competence and performance, and major life changes were not easy options…
Kuuba puhul armastavad osad inimesed hirmsasti välja tuua tervishoiusüsteemi, kuid Arnold Kling tuletas hiljuti meelde ühte nalja, mida ta Kuubat sageli külastavalt professorilt oli kuulnud:
One Cuban young woman complains to another. “He lied to me! He told me that he was a luggage handler! It turns out, he’s nothing but a neurosurgeon!”
Kling selgitab, et Kuubas teenib pakikandja tänu jootrahale rohkem ühes päevas kui neurokirurg terve kuu jooksul. Iga üks võib sellest teha omad järeldused – olgu siis tegu kiratseva vaesuse või lihtsalt lameda naljaga.
Fidel Castro´s social achievements usually ignore that Cuba was higly developed before communism. Before 1959 Cuba had more doctors per capita than Britain, lower infant mortality than France and West Germany, more cars per capita than the Japanese and more television sets than West Europeans.
See tekitab huvitava küsimuse sellest, milline oleks kuubalaste elatustase kui sotsialistlike poliitikate asemel oleks riik pööranud liberalistlikus ja turumajandusele sõbralikumas suunas?
Viimase nädala jooksul pole ühtegi postitust Vabalogis olnud päris mitmel põhjusel, millest kõige banaalsem on mingi külmetusviirusega võitlemine. Samas on see väike paus andnud hoogu juurde juba kaua küpsenud plaanile Vabalogiga midagi ette võtta.
Mingeid dramaatilisi muutusi pole oodata, kuid väikesed kosmeetilised muutused kujunduses ja kajastatavate teemade fookuse täpsustamine on juba ainuüksi minu enda jaoks olulised küsimused, kuid sellest kõigest pikemalt kui aeg on selleks küps.
Seniks aga mõned viited kirjutistele, mis on siin ja seal ilmunud.
Olen juba varem korra maininud, et regulaarsete kolumnide kirjutamine Ekspressi minu poolt lõppes eelmise aastaga, sest teemad millest soovin kirjutada ei paku laiemale lugejaskonnale Ekspressi toimetuse arvates huvi. Neil võib selles osas täiesti õigus olla ja mingeid etteheiteid mul neile pole ja saadud kogemus oli tegelikult igati positiivne.
Viimased kaks lugu, mis Ekspressile said kirjutatud olid Feta juustu reguleeriv euroliit ja Riiklik poliitika ja klikivõim. Ma ise ei jäänud kummagi looga piisavalt rahule, sest nad tundusid natuke liiga palju laiali valguvat ja sellepärast saigi juba järgmine lugu natuke kitsamal teemal kirjutatud, kuid tundub, et isegi liiga kitsal teemal.
Toivo pakkus jaanuaris huvitava võimaluse natuke Arengufondist kirjutada ja enda mõtteid jagada, kuid minu jaoks on Arengufond lihtsalt üks osa ettevõtlustoetuste teemast, mille juurde on plaanis juba lähiajal tagasi tulla.
Kes veel minu auhindade juttudest tüdinenud ei ole, siis viimases HEI’s ilmus Auhinnad – patentide omaaegse rivaali taastulek (PDF), milles üritasin eesti keeles kokku võtta terve enda magistritöö koos mõnede hilisemate arengutega. Tegu on terve ajakirja PDF’iga ja minu artikli leiab suht lõpust, kuid uudishimulike jaoks on seal üks suur ja üpris värske pilt ka artikli autorist.
Head lugemist.
Mõttepausist koos ilmunud artiklitega kommenteerimine on välja lülitatud